Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Catherine Yang about the outlook for commodity prices and his investment strategy for the currencies market.(Source: Bloomberg)

(This is not a legal transcript of the interview. Bloomberg LP cannot guarantee its accuracy.)

CATHERINE YANG, BLOOMBERG NEWS: Jim, OPEC's President now calling on the members to match output to set quotas, so it looks like there's a compliance problem here.

JIM ROGERS, CHAIRMAN, ROGERS HOLDINGS: I wouldn't pay too much attention to OPEC, they don't control the market. They - I mean I know journalists have to report them, but they don't listen to each other, the rest of the market doesn't listen to them, I wouldn't pay much attention to them if I were you.

YANG: So what should we listen to because commodity prices have been falling in the second half of this year and it's not really comforting.

ROGERS: Well commodity prices are going down. They're going down quite a lot as a matter of fact. That's what happens in markets though, Cathy, you know that better than most people.

You know oil - the bull market started in 1999 three times in the last nine years oil has gone down 40 percent or 50 percent and all the skeptics said, "See, we told you it wasn't a bull market," and every time it came back up and kept going higher.

Oil can go down 50 percent again, that's not a projection, I'm just explaining that's how markets work. There's nothing to stop oil from going to $75, but it's not the end of the bull market because nobody's discovering any oil.

YANG: Yea, but it makes us think the commodities boom that we've seen is over because of global recession settling in.

ROGERS: Well, global recession could certainly have an effect on demand, but if you are suggesting the global recession is going to last forever, I'd rather own commodities than I'd rather own stocks because stocks are going to go down a whole lot, Cathy, in that kind of environment. You should be long commodities and short stocks if we're going to have a never ending world-wide recession.

YANG: So what are you saying, that the bull market is still intact ten to fifteen years from now?

ROGERS: Bull market for commodities, absolutely. Nobody's discovering any oil. I mean short of world-wide collapse, a perpetual world-wide collapse. But even then, as I said, I'd rather own commodities. Hell, I'd much rather own commodities than just about anything.

YANG: What would you own?

ROGERS: And I do own commodities as you know. Well, every time I buy one these days it goes down, everything's collapsing all over the world. You know that very well.

About the only thing that's not going down these days, and where you're not making money is the shorts. I'm making money on my shorts, but I'm not making money on my - on the airlines I'm actually making money believe it or not. But most things are collapsing, as you know.

YANG: They are. So give us an idea. What are you investing in at this point in time?

ROGERS: Well, I told you last time I was here about airlines. I've been buying airlines for - for the summer, for a while now. Airlines. renminbi, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, some of them are working, some aren't. It's better to be on the short side right now, Kathy, than on the long side.

YANG: Does that mean that you still don't believe in the dollar recovery? You just mentioned a couple of Asian currencies there.

ROGERS: I'm still short all the investments - I'm short all the investment banks -

ROGERS: I'm sorry, you spoke over me, I didn't hear you.

YANG: The - the dollar recovery, you still believe that it isn't intact, because you mentioned a couple of Asian currencies there that you are pretty bullish about?

ROGERS: Right. No, the dollar recovery is certainly taking place and it has a ways to go, maybe a few weeks, a few months. I don't know, maybe another year or so that the dollar could recover because it was beaten down so much.

I'm buying the currencies which have been the victims of the carry trade on the assumption that the carry trade will end some day and when it does the yen and the Swiss franc or the main victims will go up for awhile.

But the dollar recovery, I still plan to get out of my dollars sometime during this recovery, but I have no idea how long the recovery will last.

YANG: But what about the commodity-linked currencies, like the Aussie and the Kiwi, the Aussie dropping below eighty today, the first time that this has happened since August of last year?

ROGERS: Well, that's partly because the carry trade is unwinding. Remember, most of those Japanese who bought - who sold the yen and drove it down and then turned around and bought high yielding currencies in the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar were two of the main beneficiaries of the carry trade.

Now as the carry trade unwinds, those currencies will be hit for a while and hopefully the yen and the Swiss franc will go up for a while. But I still own the Australian dollar, I - I saw - I mean I've planned for all this to happen.

I'm not thinking about selling it because if I'm right this reverse of the carry trade will not last forever, it'll just last for a while. Australian, New Zealand currencies are still two of the better currencies in the world longer term.

YANG: But how much better when it comes to the Chinese yuan and the Singapore dollar when you compare them?

ROGERS: Well, I'd rather own the renminbi than just about anything. The Chinese government is trying to make it go down for a while and they will probably be successful, but the renminbi is one of the better investments one can make and the Singapore dollar as well.

The Singapore dollar is something else I own. I'm not buying it at the moment because, as I said, I'm focusing on these other currencies that are - have been victims of the carry trade.

But basically I'm waiting for the dollar to continue to rally, so I can sell dollars.

YANG: Well, it's good to talk to you, Jim. Thank you so much for those. Do appreciate it. Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings in Singapore.

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(Source)⇒Bloomberg